Why not afraid of Soros a master only tens of billions of yuan-3u8813

Why not afraid of Soros: a master only tens of billions of yuan Soros, is almost synonymous with financial sniper, these snipers have mature idea, organization and operation mode, especially in the United Kingdom have, Southeast Asia, Hongkong and other places Chinese had impressive performances. So, talk about Soros, general in the financial market, the relevant government against discoloration. Now, Soros in Davos on so-called short Asian currencies in a series of comments, will naturally cause the market and government sources, including the Asian China worry. So, how to treat Soros’s remarks? First of all, accurate and comprehensive analysis of his speech can be found, Soros is not sure to attack Chinese, most in the observation state. On the contrary, he believes that, compared with most countries, Chinese in policy choice, more space and more resources. He noted that China has $3 trillion of foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, we should observe and maintain the necessary vigilance, Soros also will be included in our observation range, but no need to panic. Secondly, the strength of contrast is too great. To master a large attack to tens of billions of yuan, Chinese market, from the balance of power perspective, it is almost impossible to imagine. Some people think that his appeal will gather more funds, thus forming a trend. But you must know that Soros’s money is speculative funds behind him through the appeal of the so-called capital is more speculative funds, it is difficult to form a "United Front", once the situation is not good, the inevitable yichujikui for their lives. Again, than in the past, Soros’s "soft power" has greatly weakened. He read "financial alchemy" people know, Soros praised the "Reflexivity", the usual idea is a magnifying effect, or is called a self reinforcing effect. Through an event, resulting in the spread effect and in the market (including his "sniper") to form a psychological suggestion, as the market changes, the self suggestion is more and more obvious, groups, resulting in a huge market had undue influence, in the whole process of Soros sniper, accurately design, grasp and manipulate these effects, so as to achieve their purpose. However, Soros this set, now for the market and the government are familiar with it, you identify the ability has been greatly improved, a means of coping has shrunk. Fourth, even Soros himself knows, can only stare seamed egg". Then, the economic and financial China how? This fact has needless to say, only two countries worldwide last year GDP growth rate of more than 6%, one in India, one is Chinese, however, India’s economy is only 15 Chinese. A conservative estimate, more than 25% Chinese contribution to global economic growth, a conservative estimate is 40%. At that time, "the British pound when the seam was severely constrained by the European exchange rate system unable to move, plus the economic downturn;" the baht joint "is short of money abroad with the real estate and financial markets, long-term investment in the real economy is less, and the shortage of foreign exchange reserve. But we don’t have this kind of gap "". Needless to say, the current Chinese theory

为什么不害怕索罗斯们:仅掌握区区几百亿资金   索罗斯,几乎是金融狙击手的代名词,这些狙击手们有成熟的理念、组织和操作方式,特别是已经在英国、东南亚、中国香港等地有过令人印象深刻的表演。所以,一谈起索罗斯们,总令金融市场色变、令相关政府警惕。现在,索罗斯在达沃斯上所谓做空亚洲货币的一系列言论,自然也会引起亚洲包括中国在内的市场与政府人士担心。那么,如何对待索罗斯的这一言论呢?   首先,准确全面分析他的言论可以发现,索罗斯并未肯定要攻击中国,最多处于观察状态。相反,他认为,与大部分国家相比,中国在做政策选择时,有更大的回旋空间和更多的资源。他特别提到中国有3万亿美元的外汇储备。因此,我们应该保持必要的警惕和观察,将索罗斯同样纳入我们的观察范围内,但是,大可不必惊慌。   其次,实力对比过于悬殊。以其掌握的区区几百亿资金,想攻击庞大的中国市场,从实力对比的角度看,这几乎是不可能的臆想。有人认为,以他的号召力会聚集更多资金,从而形成趋势。但一定要知道,索罗斯的资金是投机资金,他身后的所谓靠号召力带来的资金更是投机资金,很难形成“统一战线”,一旦形势不妙,必然一触即溃各自逃命。   再次,相对过去而言,索罗斯的“软实力”已经大大削弱。读过他《金融炼金术》的人知道,索罗斯推崇“反身性理论”,其惯用的理念是放大某种效应,或者称为自我加强效应。即通过某个事件,造成传播效果并在市场上(包括给他的“狙击对象”)形成某种心理暗示,随着市场的变化,这种自我暗示越来越明显化、群体化,从而导致本来不应有的巨大市场影响,在整个狙击过程中,索罗斯们精准地设计、把握和操纵这些影响,从而达到自己的目的。但是,索罗斯的这一套,现在已经为市场和政府人士所熟稔于胸,大家的辨别能力已经大大提高,应对手段已经今非昔比。   第四,连索罗斯自己也知道,只能盯“有缝的鸡蛋”。那么,中国经济和金融怎么样呢?这实际上已经不必多说,去年全球只有两个国家的GDP增速在6%以上,一是印度,一是中国,但是,印度的经济总量只有中国的1 5。保守估算,中国对全球经济增长贡献超过25%,激进估计则是40%。当年,“英国之缝”是英镑当时受到欧洲汇率体系的严重束缚无法动弹,加上经济又不景气;“泰铢之缝”是国外短期资金充斥房地产和金融市场,在实体经济里的长期投资却较少,而且外汇储备短缺。而我们根本没有这类“缝隙”。毋庸讳言,当前中国经济的确面临着一些困难,但请问,哪个经济体没有困难?哪个时候会没有困难?如果自我“放大困难”,并被索罗斯们所用,那才会造成真正的大困难。   当然,不害怕,并不意味着高枕无忧,毫不防备。所谓道高一尺,魔高一丈,索罗斯们也必然在变化之中,他们的很多理念、操作方式也在不断创新。随着人民币汇率制度的改革,人民币上下波动空间加大,离岸价与在岸价存在一定悖离,以及香港市场的独特性和与内地的高度相关性,都需要引起注意。另外,从实体经济角度看,要防止“走出去”的中国企业出现汇率损失,即使攻击者整体上败北而去,但在攻防过程中由于企业外汇的期限、币种等的配置问题,也可能给企业造成实际损失。对于这些风险,我们都必须要早做预案,以立于不败之地。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: